Launch of the Findings from the Lancet Commission on 21st Century Global Threats to Health

The Lancet Commission on 21st Century Global Threats to Health stands as an independent voice bringing together diverse experts to examine the broad set of threats facing the world over the rest of the century.

Threats such as the malicious use of artificial intelligence (AI), naturally occurring pandemics with the potential to exceed the impact of COVID-19, conventional conflict destabilizing entire regions, and antimicrobial resistance threatening modern medicine's safety net, have the potential to determine the health of billions globally. Meanwhile, non-communicable diseases and risk factors including obesity and poor mental health are accelerating across demographics, amplifying threat vulnerability and highlighting stark inequality.

Central to the Commission's approach is an inclusive definition of a threat: the largest causes of future health loss that are amenable to policy action, spanning diseases, risk factors, social drivers, and other conditions shaping health across the century. To compare this wide array of threats, the Commission measures cumulative expected amenable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) from 2025 to 2100 - the difference between a plausible best and a plausible worst scenario for each threat.

This session will highlight the Commission's analysis, presented through the pyramid of threats: threats with the potential to cause human extinction by 2100; major catastrophic threats forecast to each cause over one billion cumulative DALYs by 2100; and the wider landscape of risks and causes shaping health across the century. Speakers will share the Commission’s roadmap for strategic action, offering a practical framework to safeguard the next century of human development.